PESQUISA

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terça-feira, 5 de maio de 2009

Aquecimento global (parte 1 de 3): leitor comenta (2)

Takata,

Permita-me comentar sobre “espaço na mídia” e sobre o “consenso”:

ESPAÇO NA MÍDIA:

O espaço para os chamados céticos ainda é praticamente zero. O seu argumento é totalmente autoritário e desprovido de lógica, pois defende a idéia que o espaço deve ser proporcional ao valor dos dados apresentados (mais ou menos, como você mesmo diz) entre as duas correntes. Acontece que a mídia nem dá oportunidade ao lado cético para apresentar suas idéias. Eu mesmo sou vítima disso. TODAS as minhas tentativas de intervenção foram censuradas no espaço de DEBATE que foi aberto no portal do fantástico sobre o tema. Basicamente, ainda, o grosso da nossa população se informa via televisão. Faço um desavio: apresente-me uma série ou mesmo uma reportagem de 5 minutos que seja, que questiona a teoria alarmista em horário nobre na televisão.

CONSENSO:
Como o próprio Houassis diz, consenso tem tudo a ver com concordância. E olha que não tinha consultado o dicionário.

Você tinha razão: não me certifiquei da data da pesquisa. Então, te passo:
a) outras duas pesquisas mais atuais
b) uma relação de mais de 100 grandes cientistas (a maioria climatologistas) que discordam da teoria do aquecimento antropogênico e, portanto, anulam o argumento do consenso (tenho uma relação de + de 800 cientistas). Rui Moura não está na relação, mas aconselho visitar o blog dele: http:/mitos-climaticos.blogspot.com

c) Quanto ao que diz a AMS (o artigo data de 2003 – antes do consenso das quedas de temperatura mundial), provavelmente você deve saber que tanto ela quanto a NAS desautorizam seus integrantes a confirmar este consenso. (fonte US Senate – Minority Report)
Além do mais, você cortou a parte mais interessante do artigo que diz:

A National Research Council report concluded that "[g]reenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. . . . The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability" (National Research Council 2001a) – Qão significativa é esta parte significante???

d) uma outra pesquisa mostrando que MAIS da metade dos trabalhos acadêmicos entre 2004 e 2007 relacionados com o clima, não endossam a tese do aquecimento global. (mesma fonte)

A tática do IPCC de dizer que existe consenso é desonesta. Mania autoritária de tentar impor consensos.
Além do mais, consenso não garante modelos nem teorias. Se assim fosse, por consenso, Jesus existe e de quebra, Deus também.

As pesquisas de opinião:

A survey of over 400 German, American and Canadian climate researchers conducted by Dennis Bray of the Meteorologisches Institut der Universitat Hamburg and Hans von Storch of GKSS Forschungszentrum and reported in the United Nations Climate Change Bulletin, for example, found that only 10% of the researchers surveyed "strongly agreed" with the statement "We can say for certain that global warming is a process already underway." Further, 35% of those surveyed either disagreed with the statement or were undecided. Perhaps even more interesting, 67% of the researchers either disagreed or were uncertain about the proposition that climate change will occur so suddenly that a lack of preparation would devastate certain parts of the world -- the underlying assumption on which the talks in Kyoto, Japan were based. Close to half of the researchers -- 48% -- indicated that they don't have faith in the forecasts of the global climate models, the strongest argument in favor of quick, decisive, international action to counter the threat of global warming. Another 20% expressed uncertainty about these models.

Another survey, conducted by American Viewpoint for Citizens for a Sound Economy, found that, by a margin of 44% to 17%, state climatologists believe that global warming is largely a natural phenomenon. The survey further found that 58% of the climatologists disagreed with President Clinton's assertion that "the overwhelming balance of evidence and scientific opinion is that it is no longer a theory, but now fact, that global warming is for real," while only 36% agreed with the assertion. Thirty-six of the nation's 48 official state climatologists participated in the survey.
There is, therefore, no scientific consensus on global warming.
But perhaps even more important than whether or not scientists have reached a consensus, however, is whether or not the scientific data backs up the theory. Data collected from NASA's TIROs series of weather satellites show a slight cooling trend of .04 degrees Celsius over the past 18 years. These findings have been confirmed by weather balloons.
Even if scientists haven't developed a consensus on global warming, the scientific data has: Global warming is not occurring. (o negrito é meu)

Abaixo, a relação de proeminentes cientistas que são unânimes em dizer que não existe consenso algum quanto à teoria alarmista do aquecimento global antropogênico:

1.Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Ph.D, University Of Alaska
2. Arthur G. Anderson, Ph.D, Director Of Research, IBM (retired)
3. Charles R. Anderson, Ph.D, Anderson Materials Evaluation
4. J. Scott Armstrong, Ph.D, University Of Pennsylvania
5. Robert Ashworth, Clearstack LLC
6. Ismail Baht, Ph.D, University Of Kashmir
7. Colin Barton Csiro, (retired)
8. David J. Bellamy, OBE, The British Natural Association
9. John Blaylock, Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
10. Edward F. Blick, Ph.D, University Of Oklahoma (emeritus)
11. Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, Ph.D, University Of Hull
12. Bob Breck Ams, Broadcaster Of The Year 2008
13. John Brignell, University Of Southampton (emeritus)
14. Mark Campbell, Ph.D, U.S. Naval Academy
15. Robert M. Carter, Ph.D, James Cook University
16. Ian Clark, Ph.D, Professor, Earth Sciences University Of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
17. Roger Cohen, Ph.D, Fellow, American Physical Society
18. Paul Copper, Ph.D, Laurentian University (emeritus)
19. Piers Corbyn, MS, Weather Action
20. Richard S. Courtney, Ph.D, Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
21. Uberto Crescenti, Ph.D, Past-President, Italian Geological Society
22. Susan Crockford, Ph.D, University Of Victoria
23. Joseph S. D'aleo, Fellow, American Meteorological Society
24. James Demeo, Ph.D, University Of Kansas (retired)
25. David Deming, Ph.D, University Of Oklahoma
26. Diane Douglas, Ph.D, Paleoclimatologist
27. David Douglass, Ph.D, University Of Rochester
28. Robert H. Essenhigh, E.G. Bailey Emeritus, Professor Of Energy Conversion, The Ohio State University
29. Christopher Essex, Ph.D, University Of Western Ontario
30. John Ferguson, Ph.D, University Of Newcastle
31. Upon Tyne, (retired)
32. Eduardo Ferreyra, Argentinian Foundation For A Scientific Ecology
33. Michael Fox, Ph.D, American Nuclear Society
34. Gordon Fulks, Ph.D, Gordon Fulks And Associates
35. Lee Gerhard, Ph.D, State Geologist, Kansas (retired)
36. Gerhard Gerlich, Ph.D, Technische Universitat Braunschweig
37. Ivar Giaever, Ph.D, Nobel Laureate, Physics
38. Albrecht Glatzle, Ph.D, Scientific Director, Inttas (Paraguay)
39. Wayne Goodfellow, Ph.D, University Of Ottawa
40. James Goodridge, California State Climatologist, (retired)
41. Laurence Gould, Ph.D, University Of Hartford
42. Vincent Gray, Ph.D, New Zealand Climate Coalition
43. William M. Gray, Ph.D, Colorado State University
44. Kenneth E. Green, D.Env., American Enterprise Institute
45. Kesten Green, Ph.D, Monash University
46. Will Happer, Ph.D, Princeton University
47. Howard C. Hayden, Ph.D, University Of Connecticut, (emeritus)
48. Ben Herman, Ph.D, University Of Arizona, (emeritus)
49. Martin Hertzberg, Ph.D, U.S. Navy, (retired)
50. Doug Hoffman, Ph.D, Author, The Resilient Earth
51. Bernd Huettner, Ph.D.
52. Ole Humlum, Ph.D, University Of Oslo
53. A. Neil Hutton, Past President, Canadian Society Of Petroleum Geologists
54. Craig D. Idso, Ph.D, Center For The Study Of Carbon Dioxide And Global Change
55. Sherwood B. Idso, Ph.D, U.S. Department Of Agriculture (retired)
56. Kiminori Itoh, Ph.D, Yokohama National University
57. Steve Japar, Ph.D, Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
58. Sten Kaijser, Ph.D, Uppsala University, (emeritus)
59. Wibjorn Karlen, Ph.D, University Of Stockholm, (emeritus)
60. Joel Kauffman, Ph.D, University Of The Sciences, Philadelphia, (emeritus)
61. David Kear, Ph.D, Former Director-General, Nz Dept. Scientific And Industrial Research
62. Richard Keen, Ph.D, University Of Colorado
63. Dr. Kelvin Kemm, Ph.D, Lifetime Achievers Award, National Science And Technology Forum, South Africa
64. Madhav Khandekar, Ph.D, Former Editor, Climate Research
65. Robert S. Knox, Ph.D, University Of Rochester (emeritus)
66. James P. Koermer, Ph.D, Plymouth State University
67. Gerhard Kramm, Ph.D, University Of Alaska Fairbanks
68. Wayne Kraus, Ph.D, Kraus Consulting
69. Olav M. Kvalheim, Ph.D, Univ. Of Bergen
70. Roar Larson, Ph.D, Norwegian University Of Science And Technology
71. James F. Lea, Ph.D.
72. Douglas Leahy, Ph.D, Meteorologist
73. Peter R. Leavitt, Certified Consulting Meteorologist
74. David R. Legates, Ph.D, University of Delaware
75. Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology
76. Harry F. Lins, Ph.D. Co-Chair, IPCC Hydrology and Water Resources Working Group
77. Anthony R. Lupo, Ph.D, University Of Missouri
78. Howard Maccabee, Ph.D, MD Clinical Faculty, Stanford Medical School
79. Horst Malberg, Ph.D, Free University of Berlin
80. Bjorn Malmgren, Ph.D, Goteburg University (emeritus)
81. Jennifer Marohasy, Ph.D, Australian Environment Foundation
82. James A Marusek, U.S. Navy, (retired)
83. Ross Mckitrick, Ph.D, University Of Guelph
84. Patrick J. Michaels, Ph.D, University Of Virginia
85. Timmothy R. Minnich, MS, Minnich And Scotto, Inc.
86. Asmunn Moene, Ph.D, Former Head, Forecasting Center, Meteorological Institute, Norway
87. Michael Monce, Ph.D, Connecticut College
88. Dick Morgan, Ph.D, Exeter University, (emeritus)
89. Nils-Axel Morner, Ph.D, Stockholm University, (emeritus)
90. David Nowell, D.I.C., Former Chairman, Nato Meteorology Canada 91. Cliff Ollier, D.Sc., University Of Western Australia
92. Garth W. Paltridge, Ph.D, University Of Tasmania
93. Alfred Peckarek, Ph.D, St. Cloud State University
94. Dr. Robert A. Perkins, P.E. University Of Alaska
95. Ian Pilmer, Ph.D, University Of Melbourne (emeritus)
96. Brian R. Pratt, Ph.D, University Of Saskatchewan
97. John Reinhard, Ph.D, Ore Pharmaceuticals
98. Peter Ridd, Ph.D, James Cook University
99. Curt Rose, Ph.D, Bishop's University (emeritus)
100. Peter Salonius, M.Sc., Canadian Forest Service
101. Gary Sharp, Ph.D, Center For Climate/Ocean Resources Study
102. Thomas P. Sheahan, Ph.D, Western Technologies, Inc.
103. Alan Simmons, Author, The Resilient Earth
104. Roy N. Spencer, Ph.D, University Of Alabama-Huntsville
105. Arlin Super, Ph.D, Retired Research Meteorologist, U.S. Dept. Of Reclamation
106. George H. Taylor, MS, Applied Climate Services
107. Eduardo P. Tonni, Ph.D, Museo De La Plata, (Argentina)
108. Ralf D. Tscheuschner, Ph.D.
109. Dr. Anton Uriarte, Ph.D, Universidad Del Pais Vasco
110. Brian Valentine, Ph.D, U.S. Department Of Energy
111. Gosta Walin, Ph.D, University Of Gothenburg, (emeritus)
112. Gerd-Rainer Weber, Ph.D, Reviewer, Intergovernmenal Panel On Climate Change
113. Forese-Carlo Wezel, Ph.D, Urbino University
114. Edward T. Wimberley, Ph.D, Florida Gulf Coast University
115. Miklos Zagoni, Ph.D, Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
116. Antonio Zichichi, Ph.D, President, World Federation Of Scientists
117. Don Aitkin, PhD, Professor, social scientist, retired Vice-Chancellor and President, University of Canberra, Australia
118.Syun-Ichi Akasofu, PhD, Professor of Physics, Emeritus and Founding Director, International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, U.S.
119. William J.R. Alexander, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Member, UN Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural
120. Bjarne Andresen, PhD, physicist, Professor, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen,
Denmark Geoff L. Austin, PhD, FNZIP, FRSNZ, Professor, Dept. of Physics, University of Auckland, New
Zealand
121. Timothy F. Ball, PhD, environmental consultant, former climatology professor, University of
Winnipeg, Canada
122. Ernst-Georg Beck, Dipl. Biol., Biologist, Merian-Schule Freiburg, Germany
123. Sonja A. Boehmer-Christiansen, PhD, Reader, Dept. of Geography, Hull University, UK; Editor,
Energy & Environment journal
124. Chris C. Borel, PhD, remote sensing scientist, U.S.
125. Reid A. Bryson, Ph.D. D.Sc. D.Engr., UNEP Global 500 Laureate; Senior Scientist, Center for
Climatic Research; Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, of Geography, and of Environmental
Studies, University of Wisconsin, U.S.
126. Dan Carruthers, M.Sc., wildlife biology consultant specializing in animal ecology in Arctic and
Subarctic regions, Alberta, Canada
127. Robert M. Carter, PhD, Professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University,
Townsville, Australia
128. Ian D. Clark, PhD, Professor, isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth Sciences,
University of Ottawa, Canada
129. Richard S. Courtney, PhD, climate and atmospheric science consultant, IPCC expert reviewer, U.K.
Willem de Lange, PhD, Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, School of Science and Engineering,
Waikato University, New Zealand

Enfim, Takata. Falar de consenso é brincar com a minha intelegência e brincando, peço unanimidade entre nós dois em um ponto: ainda não existe consenso sobre a teoria do aquecimento global antropogênico.

Finalmente, quanto às temperaturas médias da terra, apesar de ser consenso entre os climatologistas das duas correntes de que a média vem caindo no início deste século, isto não desvalida necessariamente a teoria do aquecimento. Pode ser apenas uma depressão pontual. Portanto, deixemos que o próprio tempo :-) responda à esta questão.

Abraços e obrigado pela oportunidade do debate. Tenho aprendido muitas coisas dos dois lados.

Jandui

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